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Singapore: Asia’s Politically Incorrect Success Story

Written by Nicholas Vardy, CFA.

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A city-state located at the tip of the Malay Peninsula with a population of 5.2 million, Singapore is arguably the most successful among the four "Asian Tigers" — a group that also includes Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea.

When this former British colony became a fully independent country in 1965, its per capita gross domestic product (GDP) was a lowly $511. Today, that figure has risen to $60,900, making Singapore wealthier per capita than the United States.

Singapore appears at the top of the annual global economic rankings with astonishing regularity, outranking the United States by almost every measure. Singapore has been ranked as the easiest place in the world to do business. It also boasts the #1 airport in the world. And by 2020, Singapore will likely surpass Switzerland as the world's largest offshore wealth management center.

Lee Kuan Yew: Singapore's George Washington

I've written about Singapore before and a Singapore-based exchange-traded fund (ETF) was also a recent recommendation in the Alpha Investor Letter.

But it wasn't until I read Lee Kuan Yew's "The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World" this week that I realized how much Singapore owes its success to the vision and determination of a single man.

Lee Kuan Yew was prime minister from Singapore's independence in 1959 until 1990, when he allowed his hand-picked successor and now his eldest son to succeed him.

Although few Americans have heard of him, Lee Kuan Yew is the eminence grise of the global diplomatic community, and is universally admired across several political generations. Even Richard Nixon speculated that, had Lee lived in another time and another place, he might have "attained the global stature of a Churchill, a Disraeli, or a Gladstone."

At the same time, Lee Kuan Yew is a controversial figure. And his methods for lifting Singapore by its bootstraps to developed market status are both jarringly honest and relentlessly politically incorrect.

Although Lee Kuan Yew defines himself as "a liberal in the classical sense of that word," chances are you'll disagree with him whether you stand on the left or the right of the ideological spectrum.

If you are a bleeding heart liberal, you'd be appalled at Lee Kuan Yew's insensitivity to diverse points of view.

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Delphi: Navigating gains in auto accessories

Written by Nicholas Vardy, CFA.

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Delphi Automotive (DLPH +0.56%) is one of the nation's largest automotive suppliers and a leader in integrated audio, video and navigation systems that keep the nation's drivers both informed and entertained while driving.

Delphi also makes collision warning systems now required by law on all new automobiles. Here's why Delphi's stock has been in a steady uptrend and why I believe it will continue rising in the months ahead.

First, the advanced safety features on U.S. automobiles aren't just high-end options any more. They are required by federal law.

Second, Delphi's prospects have improved along with the rebounding U.S. car market. This year, U.S. manufacturing industry sales of new cars and trucks will exceed 15.3 million, up from 14.4 million in 2012.

By 2015, sales of new cars and trucks will hit 16.4 million annually. And a lot of these cars will be equipped with Delphi-manufactured products.

Third, Delphi is a turnaround play that is just getting started. The company recently dumped much of its unprofitable European businesses. Although the company has to write off $300 million over the short term, the restructuring improves Delphi's longer-term outlook.

Delphi's revenues are projected to climb about 9% annually over the next few years, lifting sales to $22 billion by 2016 from $16 billion today. Earnings per share will expand even faster -- about 18% annually, or 95%, over the next 48 months.

That's also why Delphi's price-to-earnings to growth (PEG) ratio, which incorporates both the price-to-earnings multiple and analysts' consensus estimates of earnings growth is a mere 0.6, making the stock extremely attractive at current levels.

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Why Hedge Fund Managers Aren’t As Dumb as You Think

Written by Nicholas Vardy, CFA.

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With the average hedge fund failing to beat the U.S. stock market for four years in a row, the reputation of Wall Street's Masters of the Universe is taking a beating of late.

According to London's Financial Times, a simple portfolio of 60% U.S. equities and 40% bonds generated the same 7.3% return that an average hedge fund did over the past decade.

Adding fuel to the fire was last week's report that the top recommendations of the hedge fund world's leading lights at the annual Ira Sohn hedge fund conference in New York failed to beat the gains in the S&P 500 over the past 12 months.

Sure, there were some winners among last year's picks. Glenview's Larry Robbins pick Tenet Healthcare Corp. (THC) ended the year up 140%. Nevertheless, the average return on the top recommendations added up to less than the S&P's average return of 22%.

That, of course, didn't keep this year's Masters of the Universe from making big predictions for the coming year. Stan Druckenmiller is betting on Google (GOOG) and against the Australian dollar (AUD). China Bear Jim Chanos recommends shorting Seagate Technology Public Limited Company (STX). Greenlight's David Einhorn is betting bet on Oil States International Inc. (OIS). Jeff Grundlach is shorting Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG), dismissing "a gourmet burrito" as an oxymoron.

So, have the giants of the hedge fund world lost their touch?

Certainly, the hedge fund world has become more competitive.

I have more investment information at my finger tips on my new HTC One (sorry, Apple, I couldn't wait any longer...) than George Soros ever did in his prime.

So, it's no surprise that it is harder to eke out market beating returns, consistently.

That said, compiling a virtual track record of hedge fund managers based on last year's recommendations as if they were "buy-and-hold" investments completely makes for little more than an entertaining news story.

And here's why...

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There Always Is a Bull Market Somewhere:’ The Top Five Stock Markets in 2013

Written by Nicholas Vardy, CFA.

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With over one-third of 2013 behind us, it's worth taking a look at what have been the world's best performing stock markets so far this year.

I keep my finger in the pulse of global markets by monitoring 36 global stock markets for my firm Global Guru Capital on a daily basis. Note that these are all stock markets that you can invest in at a click of a mouse through a U.S.-listed exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks an index based on that market.

Truth be told, there isn't much of an overarching investment theme that connects global stock markets this year.

In fact, just about the only thing the top five markets have in common is that they have next to nothing in common.

The Top Five Stock Markets in 2013

1. The Philippines

The Philippines has always had a low profile, even among the global investing crowd. Viewed as the sick man of Asia, it never had the cache of its higher-profile "Asian Tiger" rivals — Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan or South Korea. And with a population of only 95 million, the Philippines does not have the demographic heft of, say, Indonesia (population 243 million), so that it could ever rival larger, BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) economies.

But what the Philippines does have is economic growth, with its gross domestic product (GDP) expanding 6% this year. Moody's expects the same rate of expansion in 2014. And if favorable economic trends continue, growth could hit a China-like 8% by 2016. No wonder Moody's called this former economic underachiever one of the "brightest parts of a generally gloomy global picture."

The Philippines' greatest coup came last week when S&P upgraded its debt to investment grade. Fitch already had done so on March 27. The S&P upgrade was critical because some institutional funds require at least two investment-grade ratings before investing. This is something that even an emerging markets star like Turkey had yet to achieve.

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GLOBAL GURU CAPITAL – MONTHLY UPDATE

Written by Nicholas Vardy, CFA.

GLOBAL GURU CAPITAL – MONTHLY UPDATE

April 2013

All of the Global Guru Capital funds were profitable for the month of April 2013, as well as year-to-date 2013.

The "Ivy Plus" Investment Program gained 2.13%. The "Global Gains" Investment Program rose 2.65%. The "Double Your Dividends" Investment Program added 1.71%.

THE "IVY PLUS" INVESTMENT PROGRAM
IMPRESSIVE GAINS IN REAL ESTATE

The "Ivy Plus" Investment Program added 2.13% for the month of April.

The "Ivy Plus" portfolio posted a monthly gain of better than 2% for the second time in 2013

U. S. Real Estate and International Real Estate were the largest gainers in the portfolio, posting nearly identical 7.22% and 7.16% gains, respectively.

The Developed Large and Developed Small Cap funds also turned in a strong performance, and Private Equity jumped 4.45%. Fixed Income swung into profitability as all four asset classes posted positive gains for April.

Commodities and timber were the only asset classes to fall, tumbling in tandem with the broader commodities markets, and hit hard by an unprecedented drop in gold prices .

#NickVardy

Read Jim Rogers' new book "Street Smarts" on Singapore-London flight.Vintage Rogers. Has not changed a bit since Market Wizards (1990)

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